The circus is coming to town.
No, not Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey, though they will be in East Rutherford from March 5-9, New York March 20-April 5, East Rutherford again April 9-13, Phily April 16-27, Trenton May 14-18 and finally Newark Oct. 16-19.
No, not the Big Apple Circus, though that too will be around in March at Commerce Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater from March 1-23.
No, I’m talking about the circus that will take place in Washington D.C. on Wednesday.
The one featuring Roger Clemens, Brian McNamee and a cast of dozens. It should be one of the most bizarre scenes featuring people under oath since the heart of the O.J. Simpson trial. Clemens will call McNamee a liar. McNamee will call Clemens a liar. It could even approach Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson in “A Few Good Men.” But while they call each other liars at will, the question of course is will Andy Pettitte call either of them a liar.
Of course, Pettitte won’t be there himself to do it, as he was excused from testifying late Monday night along with Kirk Radomski and Chuck Knoblauch. But Pettitte’s sworn deposition will likely be center stage Wednesday nonetheless. It’s already the source of much discussion as Newsday reported late Monday that Rep. Tom Davis said Pettitte’s testimony supported McNamee’s account. One source said Pettitte once asked McNamee why he didn’t give him the same stuff that he gave Clemens and McNamee responded because its illegal. Rep. Davis has since backed away from that depiction, telling ESPN that Pettitte didn’t get into a lot of detail. It will be interesting to see just how much Pettitte did say and it could tip the balance one way or another.
Right now things don’t look especially good for Clemens. The common assumption is that Pettitte asked out because he didn’t want to sit next to Clemens as he incriminated him. That could be presumptuous, but at the same time, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Pettitte asking out is good for Clemens. The best the Rocket can hope for is that Pettitte simply didn’t want to have his face on the screen as he answers uncomfortable questions about his own past.
But beyond Pettitte’s testimony, it’s hard to envision how this will play out as anything more than a very heated, quite personal game of “he said/he said.” Pettitte’s testimony might be enough to prompt a perjury investigation, but it’s not going to be a smoking gun. Anyone expecting any real bombshells will probably be disappointed. There won’t be the deus ex machina of postal workers dumping bags of steroids at Clemens feet, ala “Miracle on 34th Street.” Even if Clemens is guilty, a reasonable strategy at this point is simply to deny, deny, deny with the knowledge that McNamee’s latest evidence will not be admissable in an eventual perjury trial and sans the physical evidence, it’s hard to envision Clemens going to jail. In that scenario, we probably won’t get any definitive answers out of Wednesday’s hearing.
However, even with that presumed strategy, Clemens still can’t answer the obvious question which is why would Brian McNamee lie? At first, there were the rumblings that perhaps he was pressured by the government, but any suggestion of that has gone quiet. Now they’re accusing him of fabricating evidence, but still can’t answer the obvious question of “Why?” And not just why would he lie about Clemens? Why would he lie about Clemens but tell the truth about Pettitte, Radomski and others? And perhaps an even better question, if McNamee is of such awful character (citing a half-decade-old shady incident with a woman in Tampa as an example), why did Clemens continue to employ and befriend “Mac” (as Clemens called him repeatedly in the now infamous recorded phone conversation) right up until the Mitchell Report in 2007?
Those are the questions that need to be asked of Clemens on Wednesday because they’re the questions he likely can’t answer… at least not truthfully.
So let’s recap by setting some odds for Wednesday’s proceedings.
Even money: Clemens calls McNamee a liar.
Even money: McNamee calls Clemens a liar.
Even money: At least one Congressman embarrasses himself.
2-to-1: Pettitte’s testimony backs McNamee.
2-to-1: Pettitte’s testimony only discusses himself.
3-to-1: Clemens presents statistical data that favorably compares him to other aging pitchers.
4-to-1: At least 10 Congressmen embarrass themselves.
6-to-1: Clemens pleads the fifth.
7-to-1: McNamee offers to do for Rep. Davis what he did for Clemens.
8-to-1: Clemens places 8×10s on the table to sign, mistakenly thinking the hearing is a memorabilia show.
10-to-1: McNamee pleads the fifth.
25-to-1: Clemens presents data that proves the aforementioned aging pitchers were not also on PEDs.
50-to-1: All Congressmen embarrass themselves.
75-to-1: Clemens throws a broken bat in the direction of a Congressman.
100-to-1: Either Clemens, McNamee, Pettitte, MLB or Congress come out of this looking good.
