So You’re Saying There’s A Chance

There’s life at Shea Stadium.

Thanks to John Maine’s masterful performance Saturday, the Mets have a chance to get back in the postseason. They still need help, but they kept themselves alive for at least another day and that’s all you can ask at this point.

Maine had the start of the season for the Mets at the best possible time. He was dominant Saturday, with a high fastball, low slider and outside changeup all working to perfection. He struck out seven in a row at one point on his way to 14 for the game. He took a no-no into the eighth and only lost it on a six-foot roller by the backup catcher. For a team desperately in need of solid pitcher, Maine delivered that and more.

The game also featured hot bats, inexplicable lazy baserunning and a near riot, but none of that really matters today. Even if Maine had pitched the no-hitter, it wouldn’t have really mattered. Today was about staying alive.

The Mets did that.

Blind Faith

Dearly beloved…

OK, I guess we can hold off on the funeral service for the 2007 Mets for now, but it certainly appears to be on the way. Sure, a win and Philly loss Saturday and everything is back even. But if it swings the other way, the Mets are eliminated. It’s still incredible to even be typing those words during the month of September. But that’s exactly what this month has been for the Mets — incredible. And unfortunately for them, the season runs out before the calendar changes.

Shea had a playoff-like feel Friday night. It got off to a slow start with the quick rainstorm a half-hour before first pitch. But once everyone rolled in, the crowd was into it. Unfortunately, every inning brought another reason for the enthusiasm to wane. Right from the get-go, Ollie Perez allowed two runs in the first and the Marlins managed to push runs across in three of the next four innings. The closest comparison I can make is a boxer who sees his opponent go on a flurry at the end of each round — doing just enough to steal the rounds — and before you know it, you’re trailing by four rounds on the judge’s scorecard. That’s exactly what the Marlins did early in this game. Every time it seemed like the Mets would get out of the inning, or even an at-bat, the Marlins would find a way to inflict some damage. It hurt the Mets on the scoreboard, and was tremendously demoralizing to the crowd, which definitely saw a big walkup from fans like myself who decided to be there for the turnaround to the season. It never came.

The crowd hung tough though and was there when the Mets made their stand in the seventh. It was electric as Luis Castillo stood on third and David Wright on first as Carlos Beltran strode to the plate. But as energized as it was at that moment, it was just as eerily quiet minutes later after Beltran and Moises Alou both struck out. I’m not sure I’ve ever heard Shea that quiet in person. (I was in the newsroom for Game 7 last October.) And I’ve also never seen such a mass exodus at the end of the seventh inning. I’d love to sit here and kill the fans that left (I’m a stay until the bitter end guy), but the Shea crowd has seen eight straight home losses with the season on the line. I’m not condoning it, but I do understand it. The Mets certainly haven’t done anything as of late that would give fans a reason to believe. It’s blind faith or nothing at this point.

I’ll stick with blind faith for Saturday. But make no mistake, blind faith is all that it is.

The Meet The Mets Comedy Hour

By the way, when did Mike & The Maddog become a variety show? They spent all day Wednesday playing cuts from the new Springsteen album and then there was this. The “Meet The Mets” singalong on Mike & The Maddog has to rank as one of the most surreal moments in the history of that show — especially with Mike crooning, Dog expending more energy clapping than the average gospel choir combined and 20/20 man John Minko clearly auditioning for a career after broadcasting on Broadway. Yet, it’s not the most bizarre rendition of “Meet The Mets” on YouTube. That honor belongs to Bob Costas in this “classic” clip. So that’s how you host the Olympics…

*****

Obviously, things didn’t work out for the Mets on Thursday. Let’s see if the Amazin’s followed the recipe for success I outlined before the game.

Six parts Pedro innings — The Mets actually got seven out of Pedro Martinez and aside from the fact that he let the Cardinals on the board right away, deflating the atmosphere immediately, he gave the Mets a reasonable chance to win.
One part Reyes stolen base — Nope. Jose Reyes’ slump has hurt this team, even with the amount of runs that have been scored. When he’s going well, he brings an energy to the team that’s been missing, especially in late innings. For the most part, they’ve been able to replace his runs. They haven’t replaced his energy.
One part Reyes run — Take out the word “Reyes” and that still comes up short.
One part Alou RBI opportunity — The Mets had one man in scoring position the entire night (David Wright’s two-out, first-inning double). It wasn’t for Alou.
Five parts Wright, Beltran, Delgado combined hits — The Mets as a team had two less than what I was looking for out of the heart of the lineup. Wright and Delgado did have two of the three, but that wasn’t anywhere near enough.
One part Wagner save opportunity — If you never lead, you don’t get a save opportunity.

So as you can see, aside from Pedro, the Mets didn’t follow the recipe I provided. It was only a suggestion. Of course, it might have worked better than getting shut out for eight innings by Joel Pineiro. Yes, Joel Pineiro. He pitched a gem, for sure. It would have been nice to at least go down to a big-name starter with the season on the line. Then again, that rarely is the case. Jeff Suppan anyone?

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On a completely non-Mets-related note, I have a friend Jillian who is walking in Heart Strides 2007, a 1.5-mile walk at Sesame Place this Sunday. Money raised in the event will benefit the Children’s Heart Foundation, which funds critically needed research in the area of congenital heart defects, as well the Congenital Heart Information Network, which funds parent and patient support programs.

Jillian’s family is far too familiar with these organizations because both her nieces suffer from heart problems. Here’s what Jillian had to say about her nieces, Grace and Madelynn:

“Grace, age 4, was born with Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome (HLHS), the most severe congenital heart defect, and has had three open heart surgeries. Madelynn, age 3, was born with a coarctation of the aorta, and has gone through two surgeries to repair it. There is no “cure” for these heart defects — they require a lifetime of medical monitoring and possibly additional procedures.”

I’ve met both Grace and Madelynn on several occasions and both are wonderful kids. I know these organizations have meant a lot to the family. You can go to this Web site, http://heartstrides.kintera.org/jillian, and see how Jillian is doing in her drive to raise funds for the organizations. I’m not asking anyone to donate, but if you were looking for a charitable donation this weekend, this is what I would recommend.

Check it out and help if you can.

*****

Finally, I decided to take the girlfriend out for a nice, romantic date at Shea Stadium Friday night. The season’s on the line. What’s more romantic than that? Even better, it’s her turn to buy. (I’m a great boyfriend.)

So I’ll be back a couple hours after the final out Friday night. Let’s hope it’s the Marlins making that out… unless of course it’s a walkoff win, in which case the final out could be a Met who made an out prior to the winning run crossing home…

Oh forget it. Let’s just hope the Mets win the damn game.

A Complete Collapse

The unthinkable has happened.

The Mets just four days ago were feeling good about themselves with three straight wins over the Florida Marlins. The division lead was 2.5 games and only an unthinkable collapse would take the division away from the Mets. Four straight losses, including a 3-0 shutout loss to Joel Pineiro and the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, and there’s nothing left of the Mets lead and their collapse.

They are no longer collapsing. They have collapsed.

The only question that remains is where do they go from here?

There are two paths to the playoffs: One requires the Mets to play one game better than the Phils over the next three games or play the same and win a Game 163 in Philadelphia on Monday. The other requires the Mets to play two games better than the Padres or play one game better and deal with the various wild-card tiebreaking scenarios.

Neither scenario seems likely given the way the Mets have played as of late, but there is also no other choice than to consider Friday a new season. A three-game season, but a new season nonetheless. If the Mets continue to play the tight, mistake-filled baseball that they have over most of the month, all of this is moot. The only way to even have this conversation is to hope the reality of this epic collapse snaps the Mets out of their funk and allows them to start anew with Ollie Perez on the mound Friday. Then there are possibilities. Otherwise there’s nothing but more heartbreak at Shea.

Of the two scenarios, I really only believe they can make the playoffs through the division. I see this team either turning things around on Friday or limping to Sunday. I can’t see them playing poorly enough to lose the division but good enough to win the wild-card. I think this is an all-or-nothing scenario for the Amazin’s.

So yes, it’s been a complete collapse for the Mets. The only hope for the Mets is they view it as exactly that — a collapse that’s now complete — and start again.

A Recipe For Success

So we can all agree the Mets need a victory over the Cardinals on Thursday. But rather than lament the Mets’ current situation, I’ve decided to be positive and present for you a scenario that would get the Mets through another night.

Here’s my recipe for success on Thursday. It probably isn’t found in the “Gour-METS” cookbook and it’s by no means the only way to get it done. Obviously a no-hitter or 10-run outburst would be great, but these are reasonable requests that would make me confident in a Mets victory. In other words, if the Mets mixed up these ingredients, we could be fairly confident they would create a win.

To the laboratory:

6 parts — Pedro innings
1 part — Reyes stolen base
1 part — Reyes run
1 part — Alou RBI opportunity
5 parts — Beltran, Wright, Delgado combined hits
2 parts — Sixth, Seventh, Eighth-Inning Runs
1 part — Wagner save opportunity

Let’s dissect the recipe. The Mets need six full innings out of Pedro Martinez Thursday, just to minimize the amount of outs Willie Randolph will need to get out of his bullpen. Also, if Pedro gets through six, he must not have allowed too many runs.

The Mets also need Jose Reyes to be involved. He’s got to be on base in order to steal one and that would also mean he’s not getting picked off as has been the case too often lately. He also has to score at least run, because this team is built around him being the catalyst.

If Moises Alou gets an RBI opportunity, it’s a good bet he’ll make good on it because he’s so hot at the plate right now. Besides that would also increase his hit streak which would make the SNY announce crew beam with pride for another half-inning. Five hits spread out over the heart of the Mets lineup means the Mets are active and likely knocking people in.

The Mets also need some late runs, because the late innings have belonged to the opposition as of late. The Mets struck early Wednesday, but were quiet the rest of the way. That needs to change.

Finally, the Mets need to get a lead to Billy Wagner. He’s never been good in these non-save opportunities, so he needs a lead. If he can’t get it done, it likely means his back is screwed up and that would doom the Mets in the postseason anyway. Might as well know now.

So that’s what we’re looking for Thursday. If the Mets can do it another way, fantastic. In the end, the Mets just desparately need a win and things will look much brighter once they get that win.

But it probably does need to come tonight. Get your aprons.

Time To Panic

So it’s come to this.

Time to break the glass because it’s an emergency. Time to walk, don’t run to the nearest exit. Time to hit the panic button.

With Wednesday’s 9-6 loss to the Nationals, not only were the Mets swept, they saw their division lead — the same division lead the Mets have held since May 16 — dwindle to just one game. In fact, the lead hasn’t been this slim since they took the lead by a half-game on that spring day. All along, just about everyone has agreed that it would take an inexplicable, unprecedented collapse for the Mets to fall out first. Guess what. That’s exactly what we’re watching.

Nothing worked for the Mets tonight. Taking a big lead early? Starting a former No. 1 pick? Bringing in your most consistent starter for an inning of relief? Bringing in your closer to keep the game close? Nothing mattered. The lead got chipped away by the former No. 1 Philip Humber and completely erased by the bullpen magic of Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano. Orlando Hernandez gave the Mets a boost with two Ks to end his inning, but nothing came of it. And closer Billy Wagner only made matters worse with two runs in the top of the ninth. That was it. A five-run lead lost. A seven-game lead almost lost.

It’s now so bad that the Mets might need to win every game remaining on the schedule — one against the Cardinals on Thursday and three against the Marlins this weekend. It could be easier than that, but what over the last several weeks has given anyone any indication that it will be?

Unfortunately, the Mets can’t afford to look at it that way. They already look to be under too much pressure and the concept of winning four straight games could be enough to make this tightly-wound bunch snap. Right now, the Mets can only focus getting that next win.

But it better come Thursday or the Mets might just have house guests in the NL East penthouse.

Tight Race, Tight Team

OK, show of hands. How many of you thought the game was over when Carlos Delgado got a hold of that low ball in the ninth? Don’t lie; I won’t. I started to yell. I usually pride myself on not overreacting to deep flies and sharp fouls, but I got fooled on that one. I guess I’m rooting tight.

Which can be expected because by all accounts, the Mets are playing awfully tight as well. You can’t accuse them of not caring. You can say Tom Glavine needed to make better pitches. You can say the hitters needed better at-bats. You can say the baserunners needed better choices. But you can’t say the Mets needed to show more heart.

But while that makes for a nicer story, it ultimately doesn’t matter as the Mets continue to squander opportunities to put away this division. Tonight’s 10-9 loss (got the score right this time) to the Nationals means the Amazin’s let the Phillies off the hook again. The first time was Monday when with the Phils idle, the Mets didn’t take the commanding three-game lead. This time the Phils lost and Mets still couldn’t take advantage. What it boils down to is a magic number of four. And with five games remaining, the Mets need four wins or less than that with help from the Phils.

It still seems so unlikely that the Mets could squander this lead since the calendar is supposed to be working in the Mets’ favor, but it sure doesn’t seem that way. Even though they lowered the magic number Tuesday, they still displayed a horde of troubling traits, including a horrendous effort from a veteran pitcher, terrible at-bats with men on base and even worse, continual poor baserunning choices. How many Mets have to get thrown out at third before they get the hint? Endy Chavez almost cost the Mets their last at-bat with his ill-advised base that he only stole because Ryan Zimmerman fell over. It didn’t matter once Paul Lo Duca skyed out to end the game, but it’s indicative of the problems facing this tight, tight team.

For most of the season, the Mets appeared to be sleepwalking. Whether that was a valid criticism, we’ll never know from looking from the outside. But now they appear to be trying too hard to make things happen and it’s hurting their at-bats and it’s hurting their baserunning and it’s hurting their pitching. I’m sure they would say otherwise, but it certainly appears to be the case as the September losses continue to pile up.

So we end up with tight fans, tight announcers and tight players in a tight, tight race.

Warning: Spoilers Ahead

No one likes spoilers.

They ruin the movie, the TV show and yes, even your favorite Harry Potter book. Internet posts containing them usually are marked with “SPOILER ALERT” or some similar warning.

Well if you walk up to Shea Stadium this week, there should be a sign warning everyone — especially the Mets — there are spoilers ahead. Only these spoilers aren’t revealing the fate of a fictional wizard or taking away from your enjoyment of the new episode of “Heroes.” These spoilers are ruining the Mets’ season.

The latest spoiler to appear at Shea is the baseball team known as the Washington Nationals. These guys just seem to really enjoy making the Mets sweat. They did it for a few nights last week in the nation’s capitol and Monday night in Flushing was no different. When all was said and done, the Nationals won 13-3 and the Mets were no closer to clinching a postseason berth.

There’s two more games against these spoilers before the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals roll into town for one shot at ruining another Mets season. And then the Florida Marlins stop by for three more chances to impede the Mets’ progress. The Mets may have handled the Fish in Florida this weekend, but Monday should be a clear reminder to the Amazin’s.

Never underestimate the spoiler. They can ruin everything.

One Week, Seven Games, Five Wins

One week. Seven games. Five wins. That’s all that stands in the way of the Mets’ postseason dreams. Of course any help from our friends in the City of Brotherly Love would be appreciated, as any Phillies loss lowers the Mets’ requisite win total. But it’s not necessary. Five Mets victories are attainable and all that’s necessary.

Sunday really became the tipping point in this all-too-close race, as the Mets came back to win an extra-innings affair and the Phils lost in Washington. That put Philly three games back in the all-important loss column and that’s a lot to ask with just a week to go. For the first time in a week or two, I feel perfectly confident saying the Mets are postseason bound. I never thought they were out by any means, but for a while there it was hard to make definitive statements about the slumping Amazin’s. Three out of four in Florida changed that… even if there was some high drama there.

The question now becomes once the Mets actually make the postseason, what effect will all this tension have on the team in the playoffs. Either their confidence can be shaken by their struggles down the stretch or their resolve can be strengthened after surviving such an intense stretch of games. Obviously every Mets fan is hoping for the latter, but we won’t really know until that first game of the NLDS. It’s why October is so exciting and it’s why it’s so important for the Mets to get there.

Now all that stands in the way is one week, seven games, five wins.

*****

When the Mets brought in Moises Alou this offseason, the analysis revolved around him being the kind of player who gets a hit or two every day. Little did we know he’d actually do it. For 27 straight games (a Mets record), that’s exactly what he’s done. Way to live up to the billing Moises.

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Monday and Tuesday will be very key days in the Duque watch. Orlando Hernandez is expected to test out his foot on one of those days and we may then learn his true status for the postseason. In the meantime, John Maine didn’t come close to equalling Ollie Perez’s effort, but he did strike out a career-high nine over five innings of three-run baseball. That’s not spectacular, but it also not pitching that would knock you out of a postseason game.

*****

Attention Mets fans.

Philip Humber will make his first major-league start on Wednesday. However, contrary to popular belief across town, this does not mean he can start planning his Hall of Fame acceptance speech. No matter how well he pitches, please do not call WFAN demanding he start Game 1 of the NLDS or be moved to the pen to replace Billy Wagner as closer. Show a little baseball acumen please. Some New York fans have to.

That is all.

Two In A Row

There was a time when the Mets winning two games in a row wouldn’t be a story. That time has passed.

So let’s talk joyously about the Mets winning two games in a row.

Someone apparently got in Oliver Perez’s ear before his start Saturday and informed him that the best way to avoid another Mets bullpen meltdown is to not use the bullpen. He did almost as much as he could on his own, securing 24 of the required 27 outs to lead the Mets to a 7-2 victory over the Marlins — their second win in about 18 hours after Friday’s rain-delayed marathon. But the key to Ollie’s performance was the number of walks — none. When he’s in that kind of control, he’s going to be great. On Saturday, he was.

Even his manager was impressed. Cue Willie Randolph:

“That’s as good as it gets — an outstanding job of stepping up. It just goes to show, when Ollie is throwing strikes and trusts his stuff, how good a pitcher he can be.”

This was the kind of performance you pray you get from him in a postseason start. And speaking of which, with Orlando Hernandez walking around in one of those gravity boots from “Face/Off,” his postseason participation is in doubt. And that of course would render the competition between John Maine and Perez meaningless, since both would be called on for playoff starts.

That’s why it’s so important to get both on the right track. Ollie got there Saturday. Maine has his chance Sunday.

*****

It is incredibly important to finish off the Marlins Sunday and not just for Maine. A) The confidence boost an actual series win would give the Mets would be immeasurable and B) The Marlins are throwing some guy with a plus-8 ERA (Chris Seddon). You have to get that game.

*****

Been busy for a few days so I haven’t gotten around to discussing Jeff Wilpon’s declaration of disappointment. In case you missed it midweek, the Mets’ COO and son of the owner Fred Wilpon told Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman that he was unhappy with the Mets’ performance. That, of course, fanned the flames of the “Willie on the Hotseat” story. Here’s the quote:

“I’m disappointed with the way the team is performing overall, and that’s everyone, top to bottom. I’m disappointed in Omar, Willie, the players … that’s everyone. We shouldn’t be in this position. But we are. We’ve got to fight our way out and pull this out.”

Spoken like a true owner seeing additional home games disappearing.

What it boils down to is someone needed to say these things about the team, but it should have been the manager. If it’s not the manager, then it needs to be the players, and that did happen this week with a players only meeting. But it can’t be the owner — or in this case, the owner’s son — because that just creates an additional distraction of ownership versus management. The media, myself included, will speculate anyway. There’s no need to give us ammunition.

Clearly someday Jeff will take the reins from his father. Until that day comes, I’d recommend he spend a little time studying his father’s ability to avoid such unnecessary complications.

*****

This goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway. Rain delays and Keith Hernandez make for hilarious viewing.