Fantasy Minute

The fantasy baseball league we started here at the HNT — the Comic Book Guy Baseball Syndicate, or CBGBs for short — held its fantasy draft today, so I now know the 25 players that I will live and die with for the next six months. Say what you will, but fantasy baseball is the best value around for your entertainment dollar.

T.J. already listed the first round on his blog, so you can check it out there. Suffice it to say, yesterday I was hating my draft position of No. 5. Today, I loved it. Big Papi falling to you will do that.

Here are the players that comprise the Uninsured Cavemen:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Chad Tracy
MI: Stephen Drew
CI: Nomar Garciaparra
Reserve INF: Kevin Kouzmanoff

OF: Alfonso Soriano
OF: Carl Crawford
OF: Torii Hunter
OF: Craig Monroe
OF: Sammy Sosa
Reserve OF: Austin Kearns

DH: David Ortiz

P: Roy Oswalt
P: Barry Zito
P: Matt Cain
P: Dan Haren
P: Randy Johnson
P: B.J. Ryan
P: Trevor Hoffman
Reserve P: Joe Blanton
Reserve P: Brian Fuentes
Reserve P: Roger Clemens

A couple things jump out. No Mets. I always try to avoid Mets unless they clearly fall to me, just to avoid overrating my fan faves. Also, this is a keeper league so you can see a couple places where I drafted young in hopes of them growing into big roles. And then there’s the elder statesmen: Johnson, Clemens and Slammin’ Sammy. The Sosa thing was for laughs, but the way he hit this spring, I might have the last laugh. Clemens is going to pitch. If I’m in it come June, he’s a great midseason pickup. And Johnson should be better in the NL.

All things said, I think the Ortiz, Soriano, Lee, Oswalt, Jeter combo should bring me some success.

Civil Rights Game Promotion

Got an e-mail in my inbox from mlb.com with the subject line “Watch the Civil Rights Game LIVE on ESPN.” On a whim, I decided to open the message and find out more. Here’s what it said… verbatim…

(Begin message)

(End message)

What a wonderful way to promote your socially conscious inaugural event. Since MLB seems incapable of handling this, allow me to fill in the blanks (and the blank message). The game will air at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN and feature the Cardinals and the Indians at AutoZone Park in Memphis. The location is meant to coincide with the National Civil Rights Museum, also in Memphis.

And in a noon ceremony prior to the ceremony, MLB will present its first Beacon Awards to the late Negro League star Buck O’Neil (who I wrote about last year), filmmaker Spike Lee and Vera Clemente, the widow of Pirates great Roberto Clemente.

So if you can’t wait until Sunday night for your baseball, there’s your fix.

Opening Day Roster

The Mets made it official, making the expected moves of Lastings Milledge and Ambiorix Burgos coming north, Chan Ho Park going south and Jon Adkins getting outrighted. No. 5 starter Mike Pelfrey will be north in about two weeks, as necessary.

Not much else to say that hasn’t already been said by myself and others. I’m thrilled with the Milledge saga working out this way. He’s come a long way since the “Know Your Role, Rook” incident late last season. He’s closer now to the “can’t miss” prospect tag than at any time since the victory lap at Shea.

And as I wrote last night, I don’t see the harm in giving Burgos a shot to work out his kinks. My only problem now that the roster is set is what’s left to talk about for the next 48 hours?

Day 5 Pick: Mets over 87.5

Well we wrap up this wacky week of over/unders with the easiest pick of the lot. I love the Mets as an over at 87.5, simply because I don’t think they are 10 games worse than a year ago. And they’ll have to be for me to lose this play.

I don’t even know how the Mets got such a low number. It’s probably directly related to the great deal of angst surrounding the Mets this year — some of it justified, some of it not. Yes, the rotation is not comprised of proven commodities, but people seem to forget the Jose Limas, Alay Solers and other supposed starters that were part of that 97-win juggernaut a year ago. Pedro Martinez is out, but he was out for a good chunk of last year too. It didn’t hurt the Amazin’s too much then. I have to assume it won’t now.

Yes, it would be tough for Jose Valentin and Paul Lo Duca to replicate the success they had at the plate last year, but Moises Alou is an improvement over the oft-injured Cliff Floyd in left. Shawn Green struggled this spring, but A) he’s always been a streaky hitter and B) most people had penciled Lastings Milledge into this outfield a year ago anyway. The worst thing that happens is the Mets actually fulfill that plan.

Yes, the division got better in the offseason and the Mets are about even. However, at no point did I feel the Phils or the Braves surpassed the Mets, no matter what Jimmy Rollins tries to sell you. There’s just more of even playing field this year. That’s fine. I’ll go to war with the team that was a few outs from the World Series last October.

There are two things that do concern me about this team. The bullpen and the intangible vibe that last year’s squad definitely had. Still, neither of those things concern me enough to think the Mets are not a 90-win team. It might only be 90 or 91. But it’s definitely more than 87.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks Kansas City under 67; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks Texas over 82.5; Steve picks Cubs under 85.5
Thursday: T.J. picks Toronto under 86.5; Steve picks San Francisco over 81.5
Friday: T.J. picks Yankees under 96.5; Steve picks Mets over 87.5

Roster Realities

Those were some trades the Mets made in the offseason.

They got Adam Bostick and Jason Vargas from Florida; neither on the main roster. Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson from San Diego; one’s got a 10-plus ERA, the other was demoted today. Ambiorix Burgos from K.C.; he may make the team, but it’s because of his near 100-mph fastball, not his spring training performance. Not a stellar track record on the acquisitions. Of course, it’s not like Brian Bannister even made the Royals rotation so it’s not like the traded commodities are setting the world on fire either.

But as for the guys still with the big team, the it’s looking like Lastings Milledge stands a good shot of getting one of the remaining spots, while Adkins, Burgos and Chan Ho Park battle it out for the two-week-long Mike Pelfrey placeholder spot. I don’t see the upside in keeping Park at this point and paying him to be on the roster for two weeks. And while Adkins may be out of options, he’s been really horrid this spring. I don’t know if it’s a real loss to release him. So that leaves the Mets with the hard-throwing, unpredictable Burgos.

Should be an interesting couple weeks in the Mets bullpen.

Day 4 Pick: San Francisco over 81.5

So I’ve been blissfully rolling through these picks in alphabetical order all week, making my decision process about as complicated as that first offer on “Deal or No Deal.” But that A-to-Z strategy leads me to Cincinnati today and with a number of 76.5, I’m not touching it.

So now I have to scour the NL to find my last team (tomorrow will be the Mets pick). It brings me to a team that I cautiously think will be better than most people think. The San Francisco Giants.

Sports Illustrated has them finishing last in the NL West. Vegas has them at 35-1 to win the World Series. And their over-under number pegs them as a sub-.500 team. And I think they’ll be better.

Obviously, the Barry Zito signing was a big deal in the Bay Area and there’s no reason to believe the lefty shouldn’t benefit from the shift to the Senior Circuit. But that’s not all the Giants did in the offseason. They added Dave Roberts to add little spark to the top of the lineup and solidified themselves behind the plate with the signing of Bengie Molina. And yes, Barry Bonds is back and bruising the ball in spring training.

There’s no doubt there’s some age on this team and this might be their last run for a few years as they rebuild around Zito and their young, talented arms like Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and Tim Lincecum, who impressed in spring training but will start the season in Triple-A. Still, I think they can make a run this year in an unpredictable division. And for me to be right, all they have to be is .500. I think they will.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks Kansas City under 67; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks Texas over 82.5; Steve picks Cubs under 85.5
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks San Francisco over 81.5
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????

Day 3 Pick: Cubs under 85.5

It’s not unusual for there to be a ton of optimism around baseball during this time of year. After all, everyone’s undefeated… at least for another couple days. But this year in particular I see more GMs walking around Florida and Arizona with their chest puffed out like they just went 12 rounds with Mason “The Line” Dixon. It seems this winter’s drunken spending spree has convinced most teams that they are ready to contend.

That’s bleeding over to the betting community. A majority of the over/under numbers lead to a gut reaction of “Oooh, that’s low. That’s an over.” The problem is it’s impossible for everyone to be an over. Somebody has to lose. So I felt I needed an under today and when you go looking for unders, why not stop by and visit those lovable losers, the Chicago Cubs.

After all, no one spent more drunkenly this offseason than the Cubbies. $136M for Alfonso Soriano, $40M for Ted Lilly, $21M for Jason Marquis, not to mention the $73M to hold on to Aramis Ramirez and $10M to secure a competent manager in Lou Piniella.

OK, they’re better. But the question is how much better?

The Cubs were a dreadful 66-96 last year and that means for them to be an over, they’re going to need to be 20 games better and I’m not sure even $300 million can facilitate that. The division itself is a question mark with the defending champs coming off their worst regular season in years and the Astros trying to be good enough to convince the Rocket to take one more flight at Minute Maid this summer. Those two teams could very well decide how successful a pick this is for me.

But on the field, I have concerns with the new-look Cubs. First the old concerns: Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are completing their spring ritual of finding new ways to be injured, while staff ace Carlos Zambrano spent the past week batting his eyes at the Mets as contract talks have stalled in Chicago. Imported starter Ted Lilly gave up 28 homers for Toronto last year; good luck in Wrigley, Ted. And speaking of good luck, I’m sure every Mets fan wishes Sweet Lou good luck in keeping Cliff Floyd in the lineup for 150 games this season.

And more than anything, I consider the Cubs to be the baseball equivalent of the Miami Dolphins — the team that gets tremendous buzz each preseason because of its inexplicable national following. Much like the Dolphins didn’t meet expectations last fall, I expect the Cubbies to disappoint fans nationwide all summer long.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks Kansas City under 67; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks Texas over 82.5; Steve picks Cubs under 85.5
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????

Day 2 Pick: Atlanta over 80.5

This one hurts. About the only thing worse would be writing that I see the Yanks as an over for this year. (I wonder if T.J. does… we’ll know Friday.) But outside of that, this is as bad as it gets.

Yes, I think the Braves are an over at 80.5.

Look, I’m not happy about it either, but you have to call a spade a spade. This is the Braves — the team that hogged division titles for 14 damn years. It’s going to take more than one bad season for me to turn my back on that corpse. Maybe I’ve just seen too many zombie movies, but I suspect the Braves are coming back to life this year.

The bottom line is they got better in the offseason. Sure, they lost the right side of their infield, but they drastically improved their bullpen with the additions of Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano to complement the bonafide closer they lacked for much of last season, Bob Wickman. Atlanta blew 29 save opportunities last year. Don’t expect for a repeat of that.

And while Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche — the aforementioned right side of the infield — are gone, there’s still plenty of firepower in that empty stadium in Atlanta. The Braves scored a lot of runs last year and with the Joneses and underrated Brian McCann in the heart of the order, they should do so again. And despite Jeff Francoeur’s dreadful start to 2006, he still finished with a .260 average, 29 homers and 103 runs batted in. As far as sophomore slumps go, that’s pretty damn good.

If there’s hope for Braves-haters in New York, Philly, Florida and Washington, it’s that the back end of the rotation is a little shaky right now with Mike Hampton stuggling through the dreaded oblique strain. But then again, it’s 2007 and I’m not sure there’s any other kind of back end of a rotation other than a shaky one.

What I think this all means is that the Braves will be in the hunt this year.

Damn.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????

Duaner Downer

When I returned home from the wedding I attended this weekend and found there still wasn’t word on Duaner Sanchez’ MRI, I figured that was a bad sign.

It was.

Omar Minaya announced today that Sanchez has a hairline fracture in his shoulder and will miss approximately four months. As I wrote last week, the Sanchez Saga has been the most troubling aspect of spring training in Port St. Lucie. Now his several-day exile pales in comparison to the levity of this situation.

The Mets are hurt significantly by his absence. And at this point, what certainty can Mets fans have that he’ll return anywhere near the level he was a year ago?

Day 1 Pick: Arizona over 77.5

Welcome to our first day of over/unders here at thnt.com. There’s many ways you can start a series like this. You can pick a shocking underdog pick to set a radical tone. You can choose the play you like best, like T.J. did earlier today.

Or you can just be boring and go alphabetical. Yeah, that’s the way I’m going. So I like Arizona over 77.5 wins.

Obviously this is all about the triumphant return of the Big Unit to Chase Field. OK, that’s not even remotely true. I would probably take this pick even if Randy Johnson was still in the Bronx, but I do think he will be better back in the NL and close to his home.

But the real reason I like this pick is the D’backs have reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and a nice addition in Doug Davis with a great young lineup behind them. With Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson, the D’backs have a solid nucleus at the plate and Stephen Drew can’t be anywhere near as injury-prone as his older brother so he should be a plus too.

On top of that, since bottoming out with 51 wins in 2004, Arizona has netted 77 and 76 wins in ‘05 and ‘06. With a positive youth movement and the addition of a couple of new arms, there’s little reason to believe the D’backs won’t continue to improve.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Wednesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????